The current war involving Iran is no longer only a regional security crisis. It is also a fast-moving supply chain challenge with global consequences. At the center of the disruption lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. A significant share of global oil, gas, and fertilizer trade passes through this narrow corridor, and recent shipping disruptions have sharply increased the risk for global supply chains (UNCTAD). When conflict intensifies there, the effects spread far beyond the Middle East.
For supply chain leaders, manufacturers, and logistics planners, the core issue is clear: which goods are most exposed, and where could shortages emerge next?
The answer goes well beyond crude oil. Energy products are the most visible risk, but the knock-on effects reach into chemicals, agriculture, packaging, airfreight, and consumer goods. Some product groups may face direct physical shortages. Others are more likely to see sharp price increases, longer lead times, or sporadic supply interruptions.
Here are the ten most important goods and product categories currently at risk.
1. Crude Oil
Crude oil is the most obvious and immediate exposure. If conflict disrupts shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply tightens quickly. According to the International Energy Agency, around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products moved through the Strait in 2025, equivalent to roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade (IEA). That affects not only refiners, but nearly every sector that depends on transport, petrochemicals, and energy-intensive production.
Even a partial interruption can trigger price spikes, raise bunker costs, and increase manufacturing expenses. For many companies, the first impact of the Iran war will not be a missing component, but higher energy and freight bills.
2. Refined Fuels
Diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline blendstocks are just as important as crude. Diesel in particular sits at the heart of supply chains. It powers trucks, agricultural equipment, port machinery, construction fleets, and backup generators.
If refined fuel flows tighten, the result is usually broad cost inflation across logistics networks. Trucking becomes more expensive, inland distribution costs rise, and air cargo operators face higher fuel surcharges. In that sense, fuel disruption acts as a multiplier across the whole economy.
3. LNG
Liquefied natural gas is another highly exposed product group. Gulf exporters play a central role in the global LNG market, and any disruption in regional shipping routes can quickly affect supply availability and price levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that about one-fifth of global LNG trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, underlining how vulnerable this flow is to geopolitical escalation (EIA).
This matters not only for power generation, but also for industrial users. Many factories depend on stable gas supplies for heat, power, and feedstock. If LNG availability falls or prices surge, downstream production in chemicals, metals, and manufacturing can come under pressure.
4. LPG
Liquefied petroleum gas receives less attention than oil or LNG, but it is a critical commodity in many markets. LPG is widely used for cooking, heating, and industrial processes. It also plays an important role as a petrochemical feedstock.
That makes LPG especially sensitive to geopolitical disruption. A prolonged crisis involving Iran could affect both household consumption and industrial production, particularly in countries that rely heavily on imports from the Gulf region.
5. Naphtha
Naphtha is one of the most important hidden supply chain risks in the current conflict. Most consumers never notice it, but the petrochemical industry depends on it heavily. It is used as a feedstock to produce ethylene, propylene, and other building blocks for plastics, fibers, and synthetic materials.
If naphtha exports are constrained, the effects will show up downstream in packaging, plastic components, textiles, and industrial materials. For many manufacturers, that could translate into material shortages that appear with a delay of several weeks rather than immediately.
6. Fertilizers
Fertilizers are among the most strategically important goods at risk because their disruption extends directly into agriculture and food supply chains. UNCTAD warns that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are raising risks for both energy and fertilizer flows, with potentially severe consequences for vulnerable economies (UNCTAD).
This can create a delayed but serious consequence: reduced fertilizer availability, higher farm input costs, and lower crop yields in future planting cycles. In other words, today’s shipping disruption can become tomorrow’s food inflation problem.
7. Ammonia and Fertilizer Inputs
The fertilizer risk does not stop with finished products. Inputs such as ammonia are also highly exposed. Ammonia is central to fertilizer production, and its supply is tightly linked to energy markets and industrial gas infrastructure.
When gas prices rise or regional transport is disrupted, ammonia becomes more expensive and less available. That affects not only agriculture, but also industries that depend on industrial chemicals and specialized inputs. A recent UNCTAD analysis highlights how fertilizer and input disruptions can spill over into food security and global trade (UNCTAD). This category deserves close monitoring because it often signals broader stress deeper in the supply chain.
8. Petrochemicals and Plastics
Once oil, LPG, and naphtha flows are under pressure, petrochemicals are the next category to watch. This includes plastics resins, films, packaging materials, coatings, and numerous chemical intermediates used in manufacturing.
The risk here is particularly relevant for industrial supply chains. A company may not buy directly from the Gulf, but it may still depend on a resin, additive, or packaging component whose upstream feedstock comes from the region. These dependencies are often hidden until a supplier announces force majeure, delays, or allocation measures.
9. Pharmaceuticals and Electronics Components Moved by Air
Not all shortages will originate at sea. Airfreight is another vulnerable link in the current crisis. Gulf carriers and Middle East hubs are important connectors in east-west air cargo networks. If flight routes are restricted, capacity tightens and rates rise quickly.
This is especially important for time-sensitive, high-value goods such as pharmaceuticals, medical products, semiconductors, and electronics components. These items may not disappear from the market entirely, but they can become harder and more expensive to source on short notice.
10. Food and Consumer Goods for Gulf Import Markets
The final category is more regionally concentrated, but still highly relevant. Many Gulf countries depend heavily on imported food, medicines, and consumer goods. If ports face congestion, vessels are diverted, or insurance and freight costs continue to rise, local shortages can emerge more quickly.
For global companies serving the Middle East, this could mean delayed replenishment, lower shelf availability, and rising distribution costs. The products themselves may not be globally scarce, but their regional supply could become much less reliable.
Where Shortages Are Most Likely to Emerge
If the conflict persists, the most immediate global pressure points are likely to remain energy-related goods: crude oil, refined fuels, LNG, LPG, naphtha, and fertilizer-related products. These categories are exposed because they are difficult to substitute quickly and depend on highly concentrated trade routes.
The second wave of risk lies further downstream. Plastics, industrial chemicals, packaging materials, electronics parts, and pharmaceuticals may not be hit first, but they are vulnerable to cascading disruption. This is where many supply chain teams get caught off guard. They focus on direct suppliers, while the real risk sits one or two tiers deeper in feedstocks, freight capacity, or energy-intensive intermediates.
What Supply Chain Leaders Should Do Now
The key lesson is simple: this is not just an oil story. It is a broader feedstock, fertilizer, and logistics story. Companies should review exposure not only to suppliers in the region, but also to upstream dependencies tied to Gulf energy flows and Middle East transport corridors.
Businesses that rely on chemicals, plastics, agricultural inputs, or airfreight-sensitive goods should pay particular attention. In the coming weeks, the biggest challenge may not always be a total shortage. In many cases, the first sign of trouble will be a sharp increase in prices, longer lead times, reduced allocation, or growing transport volatility.
That is exactly why now is the moment for deeper supply chain mapping, scenario planning, and supplier communication. The war involving Iran is already reshaping risk across key commodity and logistics networks. The companies that respond early will be in a far better position to manage the next wave of disruption.
