Every spring, children around the world wake up on Easter morning excited to hunt for chocolate eggs and bunnies. In fact, an estimated 94% of people who celebrate the holiday do so with chocolate.
But this year, behind the scenes, the cocoa industry is facing a crisis that could make these beloved treats harder to find, as well as significantly more expensive. And as producers pivot their operations in the face of escalating global cocoa prices, the deep association between Easter and chocolate could start to fade, paving the way for new candy traditions built on more sustainable supply chains.
Climate Change Is Not Stopping
As someone who works closely with climate and agricultural data, I’ve seen clear challenges emerge: cocoa farming is becoming increasingly unsustainable. In fact, research had shown that the looming threat of extreme droughts, excessive rainfall, and fungal diseases are destroying cocoa trees.
Unfortunately, these dramatic weather events are not going away. And ultimately, if the patterns do not shift, the affordable chocolate candies many of us indulge in today could quickly become a treat reserved only for the wealthy.
Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent outbreaks of crop diseases are reducing yields in key cocoa-producing regions, sending the market into a panic, and igniting concern over the long-term availability of a raw ingredient used around the world. In Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—where over two-thirds of the world’s cocoa is grown—farmers are already struggling with soil degradation and unpredictable weather that makes it harder to maintain consistent production.
Surging Prices Pressure Producers
The impact is already staggering, with cocoa prices recently hitting a 46-year high. And the trend is not slowing . Cocoa prices are climbing fast—recently hitting a 46-year high. According to projections pulled from a private industry data source, cocoa futures could top $12,000 per metric ton by April if Côte d’Ivoire’s harvest falters. With global supply tightening, prices on chocolate Easter eggs and even seasonal candles may rise 15–20%. In some cases, premium brands could push prices even higher.
Compounding the problem: It is not easy or cheap to move production to areas less impacted by climate change. As a result, in the near-term, chocolate manufacturers will continue to raise prices and shrink portion sizes. By the time Easter arrives, some companies may need to even replace real cocoa with cheaper alternatives.
And if the climate trends continue, price increases mean that Easter baskets in 2035 might look very different—featuring fewer chocolate eggs and more non-cocoa confections.
What is the Impact on the Supply Chain?
Expect more brands to trim costs by turning to carob-based alternatives, which mimic the taste of chocolate without requiring cocoa beans. There may also be a surge in innovative sweets without natural cocoa, like chickpea-based chocolate substitutes or lab-grown cocoa made through fermentation, which can be developed nearly anywhere, reducing the supply chain risk for candy .
In response to rising production costs, companies may begin offering “limited-edition premium cocoa” Easter treats. These would be positioned in a similar way to fine wines or specialty foods. The higher-priced products would likely feature predominantly, or exclusively, natural cocoa. They’d be similar to what’s already on the market but marketed as premium to account for the added production expenses.
And as cocoa production shifts to more climate-resilient but expensive areas like Ecuador and Brazil, specialty chocolates may become a luxury rather than a holiday staple.
A Chance for New Traditions
But Easter is not just about chocolate—it is about joy, tradition, and celebration. Candy producers have an opportunity to embrace new traditions, supported by more resilient and cost-effective supply chains.
For example, honey-based candies, gourmet marshmallows, and pastel-colored meringues can bring the same sweetness to an Easter basket without the climate and operational of relying on cocoa.
Meanwhile, locally sourced fruit baskets, artisanal baked goods, or even interactive gifts like DIY cookie decorating kits can also create a more engaging experience for kids and adults alike, while eliminating the challenges that come with sourcing materials globally.
Conclusion
While the Easter Bunny may need to get creative in the coming years, there is no shortage of ways to keep the holiday sweet and budget-friendly for producers and customers alike. By pursuing new cocoa alternatives, diversifying production, and embracing locally made goods, companies can mitigate their supply chain risk, while still helping to keep Easter memorable for those who celebrate.
About the author:
Francisco Martin-Rayo, Co-Founder and CEO, Helios
Francisco is a serial entrepreneur, having started his first company, VuShare, during his senior year at UPenn. Before founding Helios AI, he was Chief Commercial Officer at Deep Labs AI, and prior to that was a Principal at the Boston Consulting Group, where he focused on digital transformations for Fortune 100 companies. He holds an MPP from Harvard University, a B.Sc. (Wharton) and a B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania, and he has been published in the Financial Times, Nikkei Asia, and Inc.com, among others.
