Extreme Heat Threatens Cold Chain Reliability and Efficiency

As climate change worsens, temperatures rise. Unfortunately, this decades-long trend shows no sign of stopping. Soon, even the best temperature-controlled warehouses and refrigerated trucks may not be enough to compensate for extreme heat. What can cold chain professionals do to increase their resilience to this growing threat?

Research Suggests Extreme Heat Is a Growing Threat

A 2024 research report titled “Global Supply Chains Amplify Economic Costs of Future Extreme Heat Risk” suggests rising heat indexes will exponentially increase global gross domestic product (GDP) losses, causing catastrophic consequences. The researchers predict GPD losses will reach 0.6% to 4.6% by 2060. Such a massive hit to countries’ economic health will have cascading effects. 

Extreme heat is at the core of this cataclysmic future. The researchers believe global heat wave days will increase by 24% from 2022 to 2060, driving health, productivity and socioeconomic losses. Manufacturing-heavy countries like the United States and China will likely feel the strongest effects of production and supply-chain-related disruption. 

Heat waves have intensified for decades. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there were six annually on average in the 2020s, up from just two per year in the 1960s. They also last longer, continuing for over four days instead of three. Moreover, companies are caught unprepared since the heat wave season is 46 days longer than it was in the 1960s. 

Rising heat indexes threaten the cold chain’s reliability and efficiency, impacting everything from production to distribution. If heat wave frequency increases as these researchers predict, maintaining cool temperatures in storage and in transit will become difficult. Already, one in five temperature-sensitive products are damaged upon arrival due to disruptions during transportation, underscoring the importance of swift action. 

How Extreme Heat Impacts the Cold Chain’s Reliability 

The effect of extreme heat will first be felt in harvesting and production since farmers and manufacturing facilities rely on specific conditions to ensure the integrity and quality of their perishable and temperature-sensitive products. However, it extends throughout the entire cold chain. Even air-conditioned warehouses and refrigerated trucks may soon not be enough. 

Stability is essential with cold chain cooling equipment. Refrigerator compartments’ temperature should range from 35 degrees Fahrenheit to 38 degrees F, while freezers must remain at zero degrees F. Any discrepancy can result in spoiled food products, ineffective pharmaceutical drugs or denatured biologics. 

Even when logistics professionals have the proper cooling technology, high temperatures are still problematic. Their systems may be unable to keep up with the unexpected strain, causing equipment damage or power outages. As the heat index climbs, refrigerant capabilities degrade and power line efficiency decreases. Cooling equipment will struggle to do its job effectively. 

Inventory management and manufacturing professionals will feel these effects firsthand. If workers’ exposure to heat is prolonged or intense, they risk experiencing adverse health impacts. When temperatures surpass 95 degrees F with 95% humidity, conditions are considered critical, which can be fatal — even for young, healthy individuals. 

This applies to drivers, too, since they may be forced to idle as roadways, runways, railways and bridges warp, crack, melt or buckle under triple-digit temperatures. Transportation structures are among the most vulnerable types of physical infrastructure because they are made with heat-sensitive materials and were built with outdated temperature records.

The Broader Implications of Intensifying Heat Waves 

Because of climate change, temperatures are steadily rising, and severe weather events are becoming common. Depending on the time of year, heat waves may coincide with droughts or flooding. As a result, suppliers could see cold chain bottlenecks, and distribution professionals could experience significant delays due to road closures.

At a granular level, the implications are significant. For instance, logistics workers can expect crop disease and pests to surge as heat weakens plants, creating unexpected supply bottlenecks. Pharmaceutical professionals will likely see customer demand skew as spoilage affects prescriptions. As climate change worsens, situations like these will become common. 

The human factor cannot be overlooked. Heat-related injuries become increasingly likely as heat waves intensify. The human body stops functioning optimally at 122 degrees F, resulting in productivity losses at best and fatalities at worst. In the long term, labor shortages, legal issues and high insurance payouts are likely. 

These scenarios align with the report’s claims about GDP losses, as significant product losses and potential legal issues — accompanied by unexpected shifts in supply and demand — would cause economic turmoil. It is clear that cold chain professionals must act fast to address this issue. 

Possible Solutions to Address This Growing Threat 

Although no out-of-the-box solution exists for addressing the growing threat of extreme heat to cold chain reliability, business leaders should consider several solutions. The earlier they act, the sooner they can mitigate the effects of rising temperatures on production, transportation and warehousing. 

While mitigating the effects of climate change is not the most straightforward solution, it has the best long-term effects. Business leaders should consider adopting eco-friendly technologies like electric fleets, solar panels, energy-efficient cooling systems and biodiesel. Making production, packaging and transportation more environmentally friendly would help considerably. 

At the very least, facility managers can ensure their equipment receives the proper upkeep to keep it operating optimally under extreme conditions. For example, they should schedule condenser coil cleanings for refrigeration systems every few months. Increasing maintenance spending can prevent breakdowns, saving them time and money later. 

For medium and large-sized enterprises, diversification is an essential approach to addressing the effects of extreme heat on the cold chain. Many decision-makers have few vendors because they prioritize low costs, which makes them vulnerable to heat waves. Diversifying makes them more resilient against delays, preventing demand from skewing. 

Looking to the Future of the Global Cold Chain 

While the cold chain produces greenhouse gasses, it is not the only contributor — meaning its mitigation efforts will simply slow climate change instead of stopping it altogether. Likely, business leaders will need to fortify themselves against extreme heat because temperatures will continue rising. 

The silver lining is that companies likely have a few decades before things get out of hand. This gives them enough time to invest in forward-thinking solutions regarding automation, distribution or management. Whether they optimize refrigerator efficiency or build heat-resistant vehicle shielding, they can increase their resiliency.