Ever since the horse and cart was replaced by its motorised successor, the humble diesel truck has evolved each year to become an increasingly efficient machine, capable of carrying heavier weights, consuming less fuel, travelling greater distances and becoming more reliable. Increasingly, experts in the supply chain have been able to rely on their truck fleets to perform without question as an unwavering cog in the overall supply chain system.
Over the next few years, this is set to change as an additional set of operational constraints is applied to logistics planning when the rules for phasing out new diesel-powered trucks come to play. The Council and Parliament have agreed rules that demand that CO2 emissions from new trucks sold over 7.5 tonne GVW should be reduced by 45% by 2030, 65% by 2035 and 90% by 2040. Lobbyists ‘Transport and Environment’ estimates the EU targets will result in around 30% of trucks sold in 2030, and at least three-quarters in 2040, being zero emission.
Supply chain logistics will have to contend with trucks able to carry less weight, travelling shorter distances with, at least in the early stages, questionable reliability.
Trucks are going electric.
Route Planning Implications and the Wild West
Thinking about electric car buyers, the phrase that usually appears is ‘Range Anxiety’ – worrying if the car will make it to the destination and whether there will be an available and operational charging point. With logistics planning, the scenario is even more complicated. Unlike cars, available ranges will depend upon the weight of the load, so route planning calculations have to take this into account. Consider also the impact on drivers’ hours regulations when the existing routes take longer if charging is required. Remember also that trucks will require a separate network to that for cars (as is largely the case for diesel now). Taking the UK as an example, at present, there is only one HGV compatible public charging outlet on the whole UK strategic road network.
Will long haul operators have to revert to the ‘staging’ operation where a tractor unit is only part way through a journey with an empty battery and is replaced part way with a fully charged unit to continue? Think stagecoaches and stage posts in the wild west.
Current Issues
Should the expansion of a viable continent-wide recharging infrastructure take place at a rapid enough pace, stagecoach-like alternatives may become a reality.
In addition to the issues surrounding relative lack of range, time taken to recharge and the near total inability to refuel away from base, there are other considerations for those involved in the supply chain. A huge elephant in the room is the price of these trucks for sale.
New Electric Truck Prices
Truck manufacturers are never strong in publishing list prices of their new trucks. There are good reasons for this. For example, no two trucks are ever the same. Of course, there are options that can be added to a car, but there is still a starting price, but for a truck that can have a choice of 10 power outputs, four transmission types, three different rear axle choices, a choice between two and eight axles, not to mention the cab heights, widths, wheelbases etcetera. That said, it is widely understood that, as a rule, a new electric truck is going to cost around three times the cost of a new diesel one.
It is understood that most businesses involved in supply chain logistics do not buy their new trucks but operate them on a leasing or other finance arrangement, but with the higher upfront cost and questions over maintenance costs and residual values means that the monthly lease payments will be at least three times higher than at present – unless prices drop significantly when manufacturing volumes increase. This may not happen as more manufacturers clamour for scarce resources needed to manufacture these batteries.
Recharging Infrastructure Availability & Cost
Then there is the cost of the recharging infrastructure. These trucks will need more than a simple home charge we are used to seeing outside houses. Consider the infrastructure cost of installing a facility to recharge up to 50 trucks simultaneously overnight. These will include additional onsite battery storage to ensure continuity of supply. For warehouse operators, it will also be the time to think about the installation of solar panels to mitigate the additional electricity requirements that will arise from 100 trucks needing an overnight charge of 600kWh each.
Electricity Costs
Each business will have an individual electricity tariff – but what rate will you need to pay to break even with a diesel truck? This calculation can only be very approximate as there are so many factors involved, but let’s make an attempt with a simple example of local to regional distribution with a 19-tonne rigid truck (electric trucks gain a one tonne gross vehicle weight advantage over an 18 tonne diesel).
A DAF LF electric will realistically manage 130 miles a day on a single charge. To work out what a diesel 18 tonner would cost, let’s assume that one might do around 13mpg – that’s ten gallons of diesel a day. At £1.15 (ca. $1.5) per litre (without the VAT), that is around £52 (ca. $67) per day.
For our purposes here, let’s use a rate of 35 pence (ca. $0.45) per kWh as a comparison to see if there are some huge savings to be had in fuel – check your own bill for your electricity cost.
The same 130 miles should use around 210kWh. This means that your electricity to charge the truck would need to be under 25 pence (ca. $0.32) per kWh to break even. We think that’s a low rate, but there will be some overnight tariff deals to be had for large consumers.
When Should I Start to Panic?
The fact that you are reading this now means that you have plenty of time to take a good look at the ‘trucking’ element of your supply chain. It may be a good time to look at the whole system with a blank sheet of paper, rather than trying to fit electric trucks into your current routes.
If there are any civil works being carried out on any sites you operate then consider the future cabling and energy requirements as part of the works – don’t dig the same hole twice!
The real issue doesn’t start until the final deadline of 2035, so there is still over a decade, but with truck lease durations of four- and five-years commonplace, this does not leave many buying cycles left until a decision needs to be made.
Good Luck!
About the author
Jason Hodge – Commercial Vehicle Journalist
Jason Hodge has worked as a journalist and editor in the commercial vehicle industry since 2003. Currently contributing to the successful truck portal www.truckpages.co.uk
1 comment
Would Hydrogen fuel cell truck be a more viable option to the electric truck sitiuation?
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